Sunday, November 23, 2014

A look back at last year

A lot of SU fans want to dismiss Shafer's major flaws this year due to injuries. Based on that premise, let us then take a closer look back at last season to see what really happened. Looking at national rankings is highly flawed. Differing schedules can skew the stats quite a bit. So IMO it is better to look at how your opponents did on average against similar caliber teams as yourself. For instance how Penn St did on average vs P5 teams compared to how they did against SU. That will give you a better indicator of how good SU was statistically than their national ranking.

Our opponents offensively averaged vs P5 teams:

26.2 ppg
382.7 ypg
155.0 rypg
227.7 pypg
129.5 QB Rating
2.5 Sacks
6.8 TFL
1.0 INT
0.8 Fumble
38.6% 3rd D
61.0% Redzone TD

vs SU they averaged:

28.5 ppg
397.4 ypg
148.1 rypg
249.3 pypg
135.4 QB Rating
2.7 Sacks
7.2 TFL
1.1 INT
0.6 Fumble
35.6% 3rd D
66.7% Redzone TD

So on D SU was above average in 5 categories and below average in 6 categories. SU was 5% above average in 4 categories, +/- 5% in 3 categories, and 5% below average in 4 categories. When you extend that to 10% then SU was 10% above average in zero categories,  +/- 10% in ten categories, and 10% below average in fumbles recovered.

Statistically SU on D last year was about as average as can be. They were good on 3rd down, at forcing INTs, and getting Sacks/TFLs. They were poor at giving up points, giving up passing yards, forcing fumbles, and keeping teams from TDs once in the Redzone. Surprisingly the SU Run D, which was perceived as a strength, held opponents to a whopping 6.9 yards less then their season average vs P5 schools.

Our opponents defensively averaged vs P5 teams:

26.6 ppg
390.0 ypg
157.2 rypg
232.8 pypg
129.5 QB Rating
2.2 Sacks
6.4 TFL
1.05 INT
0.7 Fumble
37.1% 3rd D
60.3% Redzone TD

vs SU they averaged:

17.2 ppg
354.5 ypg
190.7 rypg
163.7 pypg
95.6 QB Rating
1.55 Sacks
6.2 TFL
1.5 INT
0.45 Fumble
35.75% 3rd D
58.1% Redzone TD

So on O SU was above average in 4 categories and below average in 7 categories. SU was 5% above average in 3 categories, +/- 5% in 3 categories, and 5% below average in 5 categories. When you extend that to 10% SU was 10% above average in 3 categories, +/- 10% in 4 categories, and 10% below average in 4 categories.

Statistically SU on O last year was really good at running the ball and really bad at passing the ball. SU was average on 3rd down and in the Redzone. However scoring SU was really really bad, 9.4 ppg (35.4%) less than average. Given the ineptitude on O it is amazing that McDonald kept his job.

Our opponents on special teams averaged vs P5 schools:

20.7 KR
8.2 PR
21.7 K Cover
8.3 P Cover

vs SU they averaged:

16.3 KR
9.4 PR
19.7 K Cover
9.5 P Cover

So SU on STs was above average in 2 categories and below average in 2 categories. Being very good at covering kickoffs and returning punts, while being very bad at returning kickoffs and covering punts.

In terms of Wins and Losses SU was 5-6 vs P5 teams, which is not bad at all. But in the most important stat: points, which determines who wins games, on average SU was out scored 28.5 to 17.2 (ouch).

Overall statistically 2013 was a bad season for SU. That should be a negative for Shafer. Add that to the negative performance this year and he should clearly be on the hot seat next year.


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