Wednesday, October 31, 2007

King Otto Record (KOR)

So to evaluate GRob I created the King Otto Record (KOR). The KOR sets a W as an unexpected good performance by the team. So this can be an upset W over a team that you were not expected to beat (like SU upsetting Nebraska) or a great performance (like SU destroying Miami in 1998). The KOR sets an L as an unexpected poor performance by the team. So this can be an upset L to a team you should beat (like Temple in 2004) or a terrible performance (like SU getting destroyed by GTech in 2004). All other games are considered a tie. In this case as long as the team meets the minimum expectation level, there is no L. And as long as the team takes care of business, there is no W. Generally I will use the 2 scores rule. Depending on the game and the opponent a T will be if the game is within 2 scores (16 points).

So here is a look at this season:

Washington
Expectation: a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).
KOR: L

Iowa
Expectation: a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).
KOR: L

Illinois
Expectation: a W but no worse than a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).
KOR: L

Louisville
Expectation: a L (by 16-32).
KOR: W

Miami
Expectation: a W (by 16 or less).
KOR: L

WV
Expectation: a L (by 16-32).
KOR: L

RU
Expectation: a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).
KOR: L

UB
Expectation: a W (by 16 or less).
KOR: T

So GRob's KOR this year is 1-6-1 with 4 games to go. And those 4 games should all be hard fought games. A W over USF would be a KOR W. The others would only be KOR Ws if SU beats them by more than 16. And there will only be a KOR L if SU loses by more than 16. So in all likelyhood we will see 4 ties to end the year. Now evaluating the whole season a KOR of 1-6-5 is a bad season. However GRob will have ended the year 0-0-5. That is a step in the right direction. The question is will the solid finish be enough to offset the aweful start?

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