Wednesday, October 31, 2007

KOR value

Looking at his first two seasons:

2005 (0-4-7)
WV: an ugly game but still a T
UB: an easy win but expected so a T
UVA: a good effort but a T
FSU: never really close but a T
UConn: L all the way
RU: an ugly L
Pitt: tale of two halves but still a T
Cincy: a game we should have won so its a L
USF: WTF was that? L
ND: we never challenged but play hard so T
UL: late TDs made it seem worse so T

Not a good season but his first on the job.

2006 (2-2-8)
Wake: prolly should have won but it is a T
Iowa: had chances but couldnt capitalize, ending solidifies T
Illinois: late scores made it look closer a W here
Miami: may be our most dominate game so W
Wyoming: nearly overted disaster a T
Pitt: game was not close so a L
WV: gave them a game for a half, T here
UL: good effort came kept game close another T
Cincy: ugly game but will give a T
USF: very close to a L but I will give a T
UConn: almost a W but not quite another T
RU: ugly L

Much better season an gave a lot of hope for GRob's future. We were only 4-8 but we had a .500 KOR.

Overall (3-12-16)
So GRob has a winning % of .250 using the KOR. His actual % is .2258 so he has done ever so slightly better than his record shows. Now the KOR has more merit for a middle of the pack team. Those teams have an equal chance at upset Ws or WTF Ls. For a top team, the KOR is biased because there are very few chances if any at Ws. And most games are potential Ls. The opposite holds true for teams at the bottom.

The KOR is based on the belief that most games the HC really doesnt matter. You would expect a lot of Ts with few Ws and Ls. But there are a handful of games each year where a good coach will get you some extra Ws and a bad coach will get you some extra Ls. The fact that GRob averages 4 Ls a year is not a good sign.

King Otto Record (KOR)

So to evaluate GRob I created the King Otto Record (KOR). The KOR sets a W as an unexpected good performance by the team. So this can be an upset W over a team that you were not expected to beat (like SU upsetting Nebraska) or a great performance (like SU destroying Miami in 1998). The KOR sets an L as an unexpected poor performance by the team. So this can be an upset L to a team you should beat (like Temple in 2004) or a terrible performance (like SU getting destroyed by GTech in 2004). All other games are considered a tie. In this case as long as the team meets the minimum expectation level, there is no L. And as long as the team takes care of business, there is no W. Generally I will use the 2 scores rule. Depending on the game and the opponent a T will be if the game is within 2 scores (16 points).

So here is a look at this season:

Expectation: a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).

Expectation: a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).

Expectation: a W but no worse than a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).

Expectation: a L (by 16-32).

Expectation: a W (by 16 or less).

Expectation: a L (by 16-32).

Expectation: a hard fought game (L by 16 or less).

Expectation: a W (by 16 or less).

So GRob's KOR this year is 1-6-1 with 4 games to go. And those 4 games should all be hard fought games. A W over USF would be a KOR W. The others would only be KOR Ws if SU beats them by more than 16. And there will only be a KOR L if SU loses by more than 16. So in all likelyhood we will see 4 ties to end the year. Now evaluating the whole season a KOR of 1-6-5 is a bad season. However GRob will have ended the year 0-0-5. That is a step in the right direction. The question is will the solid finish be enough to offset the aweful start?

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

SU HC Bracket

Who will be the coach for SU in 2008. Voting will be done one round per week. I seeded candidates based on the likelyhood TGD would hire them. Here are the candidates:

SU Connection Bracket

1. GRob
Current Position: SU HC.
Why him: he is the incumbent and it is his job to lose.
Why not: he has done a poor job coaching the team.

8. George DeLeone
Current Position: OC at Temple.
Why him: former SU OC and knows what the job entails.
Why not: would be going back to old ways.


Current Position: UConn HC
Why him: he is SU alum and former assistant. He has shown to be a good HC.
Why not: he hasnt shown the ability to recruit. Would be stealing HC from conf rival.

7. Steve Russ
Current Position: SU DC
Why him: he can recruit
Why not: he hasnt proven he can coach. No indication would be upgrade.


3. Dan Mullen
Current Position: OC Florida
Why him: would bring Meyers O and former SU assistant. Sexy pick.
Why not: no HC experience

6. Brian White
Current Position: SU OC
Why him: he has worked under some good HCs.
Why not: no indication would be upgrade.


4. George O'Leary
Current Position: HC UCF
Why him: former SU assistant would know what takes to W here
Why not: has done so so job at UCF. Resume issue.

5. Coach Mac
Current Position: SU radio guy
Why him: former SU HC turned program around
Why not: old and senile

NFL Bracket

1. Kevin Rogers
Current Position: QB coach Vikings
Why him: former SU OC would know what takes to do job. McNabb guy.
Why not: can he handle the HC position? Will be going back to old ways.

8. Coach P
Current Position: LB coach Cowboys
Why him: former SU HC knows how to be successful
Why not: he failed at the end. Would be admitting mistake to fire him.


2. Mark Whipple
Current Position: unemployed
Why him: successful HC at UMass and QB coach for Steelers
Why not: hasnt done it at BCS level

7. Norm Chow
Current Position: OC for Titans. Ties to TGD
Why him: O master mind
Why not: hasnt been a HC


3. Dennis Green
Current Position: unemployed
Why him: big name and former HC at NFL and college level. From PA
Why not: has been out of college game for awhile

6. Doug Marrone
Current Position: OC Saints
Why him: has been coach at college and now NFL. SU Alum.
Why not: hasnt been HC


4. Jim Fassel
Current Position: unemployed
Why him: big name and could fix O
Why not: hasnt been in college game

5. Tom Coughlin
Current Position
Why him: big name and SU alum
Why not: would need to be let go from GMen. Also hasnt been in college in awhile

BCS Bracket

1. Mike Locksley
Current Position: OC Illinois
Why him: great recruiter
Why not: can he coach

8. Bob Davie
Current Position: ESPN announcer
Why him: was coach at ND
Why not: wasnt successful and has been out of game for awhile


2. Gary Crowton
Current Position: OC LSU
Why him: great O mind
Why not: BYU mess both on and off field

7. Bud Foster
Current Position: DC VT
Why him: great D mind
Why not: can he HC


3. Jimbo Fisher
Current Position: OC FSU
Why him: good OC
Why not: can he HC. Hasnt improved FSU O.

6. Glen Mason
Current Position: B11 TV guy
Why him: successfully built Kansas and Minnesota
Why not: age. Not Sexy pick.


4. Bo Pelini
Current Position: DC LSU
Why him: successful several BCS stops
Why not: can he be head guy. Why hasnt he gotten HC job yet.

5. Larry Coker
Current Position: unemployed
Why him: national champ HC. Big name.
Why not: lost Miami program.

Small School Bracket

1. Paul Johnson
Current Position: HC Navy
Why him: has been successful several places
Why not: can he recruit at BCS level

8. Sean McDonnell
Current Position: HC NH
Why him: good O
Why not: transition to 1A


2. Brian Kelly
Current Position: HC Cincy
Why him: has been successful several places
Why not: stealing conf mates HC

7. Don Brown
Current Position: HC UMass
Why him: been successful and NE ties
Why not: jump to 1A


3. Jon Heacock
Current Position: HC Youngstown State
Why him: Tressel guy and brother DC at OSU
Why not: can he do it on his own

6. Jerry Kill
Current Position: HC S Illinois
Why him: has nice O
Why not: coaches 1AA


4. Al Golden
Current Position: HC Temple
Why him: can recruit and has made Temple decent
Why not: would likely bring DeLeone

5. Frank Solich
Current Position: HC Ohio
Why him: big name and recruit Ohio
Why not: can he get it done without Nebraska talent

I left Turner Gill off of this list because he is going to Nebraska and SU has not shot at him.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Tale of the Tape: Pitt vs Syracuse

Pitt: 1787 vs SU: 1870 Advantage: Pitt... which was founded as Pittsburgh Academy, and later became Western University of PA in 1819. In 1845 a fire destroyed 20 blocks in Pittsburgh including university buildings and records. In 1908 they finally became Pitt but were not a public university until 1966.

The fire happened well before the construction of Pitts most…

Famous building
Pitt: Cathedral of Learning vs SU: Hall of Languages Advantage: Pitt... its the tallest educational building in the US (535ft, 42 stories) and 2nd tallest in the world. After a Pitt W it is illuminated in gold-colored lights (next eta 11/3).

Pitt: 57th vs SU: 50th
Advantage: SU… at least we have something going for us
School known for
Pitt: UPMC vs SU: Newhouse Advantage: Pitt... the polio vaccine was developed there byNotable educators
Pitt: Jonas Salk, Mr Rogers vs SU: Pat Moynihan, Peter Weller Advantage: Pitt... wouldnt be such a beautiful day in the neighborhood without Salks work

A neighborhood is part of a…

Pitt: Pittsburgh, PA vs SU: Syracuse, NY Advantage: SU... basically the same but SU gets the nod for being in NY. PA sucks.City Nickname
Pitt: Steel City vs SU: Salt City Advantage: Pitt... we are not bigger than US Steel.

Speaking of steel

Pitt: Carnegie Mellon in Pittsburgh and Andrew Mellon alum vs SU: Carnegie Library Advantage: Pitt... but thanks for the gift Mr Carnegie

Pitt is also known as the City of Bridges having 446 of them. Which are needed to cross…

Bodies of Water
Pitt: three rivers vs SU: finger lakes Advantage: Push... not too annoying having to drive over a million bridges, but lake effect snow is no better.

And snow is a pain when traveling down the…

Pitt: Washington vs SU: Olympus
Advantage: Pitt… they have an inclined rail to travel down in.

At one time in that area panthers used to roam, which led to…

Pitt: ROC vs SU Otto Advantage: SU... Otto cannot be beaten
Mascots usually chill with the…

Pitt: multiple champs including 1992-1994 vs SU: nice to look at
Advantage: SU… thats what they are there for

And they can be seen supporting the team at the…

Pitt: Heinz Field (65k) vs SU: Carrier Dome Advantage: Pitt... you can get ketchup at Heinz, you cant get AC in the Dome

Pitt played at Recreation Park until 1899. Then moved to Exposition Park until 1908, followed by Forbes Field until 1924. In 1925 they started playing in Pitt Stadium, where they stayed until moving to Three Rivers for the 2000 season and have been at Heinz since 2001.

1st year of FB
Pitt: 1890 vs SU: 1889 Advantage: Push... basically the same All Time wins
Pitt: 642 vs SU: 670Advantage: SU... it is too bad that the 3 best traditional BE teams (WV, Pitt, SU) arent together dominating the confFB Championships
Pitt: depends on who you ask vs SU: oneAdvantage: Pitt... 2 came after polls started (1937 and 1976)

Big East Champs
Pitt: One vs SU: Four
Advantage: SU… I still dont understand how in the hell they were given the BCS slot in 2004
Lambert Trophies
Pitt: Six vs SU: Six
Advantage: Push… both are tied for 3rd all time, one behind Army and many behind PSU.
Bowl record
Pitt: 10-14 vs SU: 12-9-1 Advantage: SU... way to represent Pitt

Sugar Bowl Shenanigans
Pitt: 1956 Bobby Grier was the first black man to play in the game
SU: 1987 Auburn went for the tie ruining SUs perfect season
Advantage: Push… there are no winners here. In that 1956 game GTech threatened not to play because of Grier. Props to Pitt for holding their ground and demanding that Grier play. In the game (a 7-0 loss), Grier was called for a controversial pass interference call in the end zone. After the game Louisiana outlawed integrated competition and no black players participated in the Sugar Bowl until a Floyd Little and Jim Nance led SU team played in 1965.
Head to Head
Pitt: 29 wins vs SU: 30 wins Advantage: Push… they are about to tie it
We hate… Penn State
Pitt: 42-50-4 vs SU: 23-40-5
Advantage: Push… boths main rival was PSU but no longer play on a yearly basis.

Second biggest rival
Pitt: WV (Back Yard Brawl: 59-37-3) vs SU: Colgate (29-31-5)Advantage: Pitt... they also have a rivalry with ND and now have added the River City Rivalry with Cincy

Rivals usually play for a trophy. But trophies can also be an…
Individual trophy
Pitt: Outland winner Mark May vs SU: TE trophy named after Mackey
Advantage: SU… a deserving honor

And the most important individual trophy of them all…

Heisman winner
Pitt: Tony Dorsett vs SU: Ernie Davis Advantage: Push... both were pretty damn good Other RBs
Pitt: Curtis Martin, Ironhead Heyward, Curvin Richards vs SU Jim Brown, Floyd Little, Joe Morris, Larry Csonka, Jim Nance, Moose Johnston Advantage: SU... easy win NFL QB
Pitt: Dan Marino vs SU: McNabb Advantage: Push... neither could win the big one QB that lead team to undefeated season
Pitt: Matt Cavanaugh vs SU: Don McPherson Advantage: Pitt... he has the ring
Other QBs
Pitt: Pete Gonzalez, Rod Rutherford, Alex Van Pelt vs SU: Marvin Graves, Wilmeth Sidat-Singh, Todd Philcox
Advantage: SU… by a slim margin

Pitt: Latif Grim, Antonio Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Lee vs SU: Ark Monk, Rob Moore, Marvin Harrison, Kevin Johnson Advantage: SU... one is real the other is fake TE
Pitt: Mike Ditka vs SU: John Mackey Advantage: Push... both were great OLmen
Pitt: Mark May, Russ Grimm, Bill Fralic, Ruben Brown, Mark Stepnoski vs SU: John Flannery, Craig Wolfley Advantage: Pitt... nice blocking there DLmen
Pitt: Hugh Green, Chris Doleman, Bill Maas, Tony Siragusa vs SU: Dwight Freeney, Tim Green Advantage: Pitt… both teams have some great sack men, including Goose (as in eating)

Pitt: Ricky Jackson vs SU: Keith Bulluck
Advantage: Push… both are underrated
Pitt: Pop Warner, Johnny Majors, Jimmy Johnson, Jackie Sherrill, Mike Gottfried, Marty Shottenheimer, John Gruden, Mike McCarthy, Joe Walton, Mike Ditka, Wannstache vs SU Tom Coughlin, Ben Schwartzwalder, Coach Mac, Coach P Advantage: Pitt... in a landslide
Sticking with coaches,

Current HC
Pitt: Wannstache vs SU: GRob Advantage: Push... neither can coach FB staffer
Pitt: David Walker (SU Alum) vs SU: Desmond Robinson (Pitt Alum) Advantage: Push... doesnt seem right, lets trade Former SU BBall staffer,

Ralph Willard
Pitt: HC vs SU: Assistant
Advantage: SU… not surprisingly he was successful here

Staying with BBall,

The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh
Pitt: about Pittsburgh team vs SU: Marv Albert appeared in
Advantage: Pitt… Pisces are the best. This happens to be McNabb’s fav movie.

If they did a remake of the movie you would likely cast a…
Crazy Sports Exec
Pitt: Mark Cuban, Pat Croce vs SU: Al Davis
Advantage: SU… Davis was able to win a championship

Davis rules the Raiders like a…

Pitt: Friday VIII vs SU: Otto III
Advantage: SU… what kind of freaking king lives next to the train tracks?

Instead of a king we have…

Pitt: Orrin Hatch, Rich Santorum, James Traficant vs SU: Al D'Amato, Joseph Biden Advantage: SU... ouch not the best group there, Pitt
Santorum is a contributor to Fox News Channel. Fox also employs…

Fox NFL guy
Pitt: Tony Siragusa vs SU: Daryl Johnston Advantage: SU... Moose beats the Goose

Other media guys…

Sports journalist
Pitt: Beano Cook vs SU: Bob Costas
Advantage: Pitt… it is fun hearing his senile views

Pitt: Mike Gottfried vs SU: Dave Pasch
Advantage: Push… not a fan of either

But I am a fan of midgets,

NFL battle
Pitt: a mini Ditka coaching a midget squad of da Bears vs SU: a Tom Coughlin coached Giants team using real giants Advantage: Pitt... a mini Ditka with a mini Fridge would still win

A mini fridge can store…

Pitt: Primanti Brothers vs SU: Dino BBQ Advantage: SU... I will pass on the slaw Sandwiches called
Pitt: hoagie vs SU: sub Advantage: Push... as long as it tastes good I could care less what you call itBreakfast place
Pitt: Eatin' Park vs SU: Denny's Advantage: Push... the only winner here is the toilet paper industry

You cant get TP but you can get a portable toilet at…

Dicks Sporting Goods
Pitt: HQ in the Burgh vs SU: started in Binghamton
Advantage: SU… everything starts in NY.

If yinz get a portable toilet you may need Mr Belvedere (show took place outside Pittsburgh) to redd up. Otherwise your place will be trashy like Britney Spears. Remember when she used to be as important as…

Pitt: Christina Aguilera (native) vs SU: Vanessa Williams
Advantage: Pitt… and now it is time for the ToT’s closing song

This year’s weekly category…

Bizarro Swish (aka manly guy who kicks ass)
Pitt: Charles Bronson (native) vs SU: Thom Filicia
Advantage: Pitt… I dont have a death wish

Wow folks this one is almost too close to call. It could go either way. OT could be where this one is decided. But the Pitt Panthers will win in the end. And remember the numbers never lie.

Saturday, October 27, 2007


Screw Maria and Erin, why is Trish Regan not on all day?

Coming soon....

The new home of Tale of the Tape

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